Yen “goes on the offensive”

29.10.2021

The Japanese yen is strengthening against the US dollar on Thursday. The current quote in USDJPY is 113.58. On the one hand, the market may need “safe” assets during downturns, and the yen is good for that. On the other hand, there is no need to wait for the yen to react to the statistics, but the results of the Bank of Japan meeting can be won back. So, the Bank of Japan in October left everything as it is: the interest rate was kept at the level of -0.10% per annum. The target yield on ten-year government bonds was left at zero.

\Meanwhile, the regulator revised its views on key economic goals for the current financial year. Therefore, inflation in 2021-2022 fiscal year has been reduced to zero against the estimate in July at 0.6%. The consumer price index is expected to be at 0.9%, as in the previous forecast. Real GDP for the current fiscal year will be 3.4%, down from 3.8% in July. In the 2022-2023 fiscal year, the economy may expand by 2.9% against the July value of 2.7%.

As the influence of the pandemic weakens, the Japanese economy will accelerate its recovery and growth, as will consumer price inflation. Meanwhile, the unexpected influence of the pandemic cannot be ruled out. The Japanese economic system remains in a difficult position, but within the trend, the growth rates still seem to be sufficient.