While the banks are breaking, the markets are hearing the sound of peak rates

13.03.2023

Investors on Monday tried to lower global rate expectations and refused to bet on a sharp U.S. rate hike next week, believing the biggest U.S. bank collapse since the financial crisis would make policymakers think twice.

On Sunday, the U.S. administration took emergency measures to shore up confidence in banks, guaranteeing deposits after withdrawals slammed Silicon Valley Bank and closing the under pressure lender Signature Bank in New York.

But while stock futures rose on relief, bond markets opened in Asia with a furious race to reset rate expectations, suggesting the Federal Reserve may not want to raise rates next week while the mood is feverish and gentle.

U.S. interest rate futures rose sharply and the rally in short-term bonds continued, bringing two-year Treasuries to their best three-day gain since Black Monday in 1987.

Bank stress and the resulting shake-up of the credit books mean higher borrowing costs, and the resulting pressure on the real economy makes it difficult to raise rates further.