USDJPY – When will the Fed start cutting rates?

03.11.2023

Important events today:

12:30 UTC – US: change in non-farm payrolls.

The currency market is laying on the scenario of the end of the US Fed interest rate hike cycle and expects monetary easing next year. If we draw historical parallels, it takes an average of 8 months between the last Fed rate hike and the first rate cut, and it was almost always accompanied by a financial crisis. The Fed raised the rate for the last time at the July meeting and against this background we can conclude that the rate cut may not start before the March meeting.

Recommendations: flat at 149.50 -150.90.