USDJPY – Slight increase in dollar liquidity expected

26.05.2023

Important events today:

12:30 UTC – US: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index.

The U.S. Federal Reserve provided fresh data on the U.S. banking system, according to which the dollar liquidity surplus decreased by $29.2 billion as the U.S. Treasury reduced its spending and banks began to place free cache in accounts with the Fed again. The Treasury has $49.5 billion left until the end of May, and the Fed will have to reduce its bond portfolio by $19 billion.

That leaves $30.5 billion in dry balances and if banks once again place cache in Fed accounts of about $15 billion, the liquidity surplus in the coming week could be just over $15 billion, which is moderately positive for equity markets and moderately negative for the U.S. currency. On this background it is advisable to open sell positions for this currency pair in the area of the psychological level of 140.00.

Recommendations: Sell 140.00/140.40 and TP 139.50.