Important events today:

12:15 UTC – EU: ECB interest rate decision.

The course of trading will be strongly influenced by the American stock market, since this currency pair historically correlates strongly with the SP500 index. In the US, corporate reporting season is in full swing. At the moment, slightly more than half of the published corporate releases turned out to be better than the consensus forecast, which at first glance is favorable for the growth of the stock market. Bank of America conducted a traditional monthly survey among investment fund managers, where it recorded investor pessimism similar to the 2008 global crisis. Most of the managers (they manage $722 billion) are now sitting in cash and watching the developments.

Investment funds are afraid of high inflation, which is detrimental to corporate income. On the other hand, this situation is also favorable for the growth of the stock market, since at any moment the capital will go into stocks. However, I am confused by the fact that the yield spread of short-term and long-term US Treasuries has been consistently in the negative area for the past two weeks. In the past, this situation led to the fall of the SP500 index.

Recommendations: Flat 137.65 -138.60.