USDJPY – Correlation with SP500

18.11.2022

No important events are expected today

It is advisable to use the fall of the quotes in the area of the nearest support levels to buy this currency pair. I expect the US stock market to rise today, which is positive for USDJPY, as the currency pair historically correlates well with the SP500 index. The dynamics of the US stock market is highly dependent on the real US Treasury bond yields.

The lower the real yield on government bonds, the more traders are eager to buy the securities, and the opposite is also true. What do we have now with real U.S. government bond yields? It peaked in October and has been falling ever since. Investors are becoming more and more convinced that the Fed will end its interest rate hike cycle at its March 15, 2023 meeting, when the rate will be raised to 5%.

Recommendation: Buy 139.30/138.85 and TP 140.00.