USDJPY – China launches new incentives

04.08.2023

Important events today:

14:00 UTC – US: inflation expectations from the University of Michigan.

Japan’s central bank held a meeting today where it expectedly kept the discount rate unchanged at -0.1%, while the regulator said it does not rule out a rise in Japanese 10-year government bond yields above 0.5%. If earlier the Central Bank limited the growth of yields to 0.5%, now it announced that interventions should be expected when approaching the level of 1%. This is a positive signal for the Japanese yen, but the market is also seeing a rise in the yields of U.S. government bonds, which in turn is favorable for the strengthening of the dollar.

Tonight we may see the growth of inflation expectations in the U.S. from the University of Michigan, which will encourage traders to buy the U.S. currency. Additional support for the “bulls” will be provided by stimuli from the Celestial Empire – the Chinese authorities today announced the launch of new support measures for the construction market and IT-sector, which will force investors to increase the volume of carry trade transactions through the Japanese yen – investment funds and banks will take loans in yen and send them to buy Asian securities.

Recommendations: flat 138.50 -139.50.