The Fed is set for a significant rate hike

21.09.2022

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point for the third time in a row on Wednesday and give an indication of how much further and how fast borrowing costs must rise to temper a potentially dangerous burst of inflation.

The policy decision, due to be announced at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), will be the latest step in a synchronized change in global central bank policy that tests the resilience of the global economy and countries’ ability to manage exchange rate shocks amid a soaring dollar value.

While investors largely expect the Fed to raise its discount rate by 75 basis points to a range of 3.00-3.25 percent, markets may be concerned about updated quarterly economic forecasts that will be released along with the policy statement.

These forecasts will show where Fed policymakers think interest rates are headed, how long it will take inflation to fall, and how much “pain” is likely to be inflicted on U.S. employment and economic growth along the way.

If the last few months are prologue, this rewritten economic scenario will point to a harder-than-expected struggle ahead, with the federal funds rate likely to reach 4% by the end of 2022, up from the 3.4% that was expected when the last set of projections were released in June, and rising unemployment.