A positive background for the euro is now forming. Firstly, the yield spread between short-term and long-term US Treasury bonds exceeded 1% for the first time over the past three years. The growth of the indicator is negative for the dollar. Investors expect a quick recovery in the global economy after the coronavirus crisis. Against this background, increased demand for the US dollar should not be expected as a funding currency.

Secondly, the rally in the oil market is also negative for the dollar, insofar as historically oil and the US currency have been inversely correlated. The American Petroleum Institute reported on the reduction of black gold reserves in American vaults by 5.82 million barrels. This is a positive signal for the oil market.

Investment idea: Buy 1.2190 / 1.2170 and take profit 1.2230.