On the eve, the US Federal Reserve System published the protocol of its last meeting, which turned out to be quite interesting. Firstly, L. Logan, manager of open market operations, said that primary bond dealers expect the monetary regulator to cut the QE program over the next 3 quarters. Based on this, we can conclude that every month the Fed will reduce asset purchases by $15 billion and will complete the program in 8 months.

The first increase in the Fed’s interest rate will take place 3 quarters after the end of the QE program. If the Fed begins to reduce the stimulus program from January 1, 2022, then in the fall the Central Bank will no longer print money, and in the early summer of 2023 it may increase the discount rate by 0.25%.

Secondly, it was noted that the excess reserves of the American banking system will continue to increase in the coming months, which will put pressure on the interest rates of the interbank market.

Trading recommendation: Buy 1.2165/1.2145 and take profit 1.2240.