A speech by the head of the Federal Reserve at an economic symposium in Jackson Hole triggered a sale of the dollar. Jerome Powell said that if the positive trend in the labor market continues, it would be advisable to start reducing the stimulus this year. The head of the FRS did not specify when and to what extent it will be, but Powell said that after the completion of the QE program, interest rates will not increase next year.

The increase in interest rates will begin after the Fed is confident in the steady growth of the American economy. What do we have that leaves us? It is possible that the Fed will begin to cut QE from November 1 or December 1, but this is not certain. The discount rate will be increased only in 2023. Inasmuch as there is a lot of dollar liquidity in the financial system, the dollar will fall in price until the next Fed’s meeting, which is scheduled for September 22.

Trading recommendation: Buy 1.1782/1.1755 and take profit 1.1835.