ECB may bring surprise today

09.09.2021

Today the main event of the day will be the announcement of the results of the ECB meeting. Inasmuch as the unemployment rate in the eurozone has almost reached pre-coronavirus values (now the figure is 7.6%, and before the pandemic it was 7.4%), and inflation exceeds the ECB’s target, the monetary authorities may announce a return to the previous volume of asset purchases, which at the beginning of the year was €20 billion per month.

Let me note that in the last two weeks the ECB has bought back assets from the market in the amount of €154.7 billion per month. Therefore, a sharp cut in stimulus measures may encourage bulls to actively buy the euro against the dollar. Insofar as today and tomorrow the Fed will actively print money and buy Treasury bonds, the European currency will have a good chance of completing this trading week near the psychological level of 1.2000.

Trading recommendation: Buy 1.1800/1.1775 and take profit 1.1908.