Geopolitics intervened again in the course of trading. The EU and the UK are again at odds over compliance with the Brexit agreement. It cannot be said that this is a huge factor that will lead to large-scale sales of the euro, but this happened during the period of QE reduction in the United States and investors will be sensitive to any negative news now. If earlier traders turned a blind eye to many problems, inasmuch as there was an excess of dollar liquidity in the financial system due to the large-scale emission of the American currency by the Federal Reserve, now the surplus will decrease every day and any negative news may be perceived differently than it was in the beginning of the year.

On the other hand, I expect the rise in commodity market, which may cause profit-taking on “shorts” and contribute to a technical correction.

Trading recommendation: flat 1.1340 – 1.1435.