What signals the Fed rate futures?

24.11.2021

Futures on the US Federal Reserve rate indicates the probability of a threefold increase in the rate next year, which will have a positive influence on the value of the US dollar. According to investors, by the end of 2022, the FRS rate will be in the range of 0.75-1%. This will continue to be below inflation, but in 2023 the figures may become equal.

The spread of the yield of short-term and long-term Treasury bonds is now 1.04% and a decrease in the indicator below 1% may become a catalyst for further acceleration of the upward trend in the US currency. The USDX basket index is at a 16-month maximum now and I see no reason to reverse the trend.

Trading recommendation: buy 114.80/114.55 and take profit 115.37.