Will UK inflation report make surprise?

24.03.2021

With the opening of the European session, the UK National Statistical Office will publish a February inflation release. Investment banks expect an increase in the consumer price index by 0.1 percentage points up to 0.8% and we can agree with this opinion, insofar as the growth of the average wage, together with the increase in the cost of energy carriers, signals an increase in the Consumer Price Index. The market is considering this factor and the reaction to the inflation report will be short-term.

On the eve, the Fed published statistics on the money supply, which previously published weekly on Thursdays, and now switched to monthly reports. The money supply is $19.5 trillion, and the money multiple is 3.59x, up from 3.7x a month earlier. The indicator is declining, which means there is no growth in bank lending. Against this background, Jerome Powell is right when he speaks of a temporary rise in inflation in the United States.

Investment idea: flat 1.3670-1.3770.