The United States will publish the February inflation release this afternoon. The consensus forecast assumes an increase of 0.3 percentage points up to 1.7% and it is possible to agree with this guideline, inasmuch as the rise in prices for industrial goods and energy resources contributed to an increase in the consumer price index. Head of Fed D. Powell in his recent speeches also pointed to the rise in inflation in the next few months against the background of the low base effect of the first half of 2020.

This is a mildly positive signal for the dollar, insofar as investors expect inflation to rise, and against this background we can expect the strengthening of the US currency within the first hour after the publication of the report. Generally, I do not expect high volatility today, inasmuch as investors will refrain from opening positions before tomorrow’s ECB meeting.

Investment idea: flat 1.1825-1.1925.