GBPUSD – Population takes money out of British banks

05.07.2023

Important events today:

18:00 UTC – US: publication of Fed meeting minutes.

According to the latest statistics from the Bank of England, there was a record outflow of household deposits in May of this year, amounting to 4.6 billion pounds. Such disturbing trends may indicate an approaching banking crisis in the UK, as I described last month. The strong increase in interest rates in Britain does not pass unnoticed for the economy and the population begins to accumulate cash for a “rainy day”. Another worrying signal comes from the debt market – the British government bond index is at an 8-month low and a further decline could cause big problems for banks and pension funds. The similar situation was observed last autumn and then the pound got under a powerful wave of sales.

Recommendations: Sell 1.2730/1.2760 and TP 1.2650.