GBPUSD – Lower inflation is negative for the pound

20.09.2023

Important events today:

18:00 UTC – US: Fed interest rate decision.

The UK National Statistics Office presented fresh data on inflation – the core rate, which is closely monitored by the Bank of England, fell by 0.7 p.p. to 6.2%, while the market initially expected the rate to rise to 7%. Tomorrow the Bank of England will hold another meeting, where it may raise the discount rate by a quarter of a percent to 5.5% for the last time this year.

The British regulator is likely to follow the example of the ECB, which raised the rate last week and announced the need to pause to assess the future outlook for monetary policy. For the pound, this is a negative signal, as investors initially expected the regulator to bring the rate to 6% at the end of the year.

Recommendations: Sell 1.2388/1.2435 and TP 1.2300.