Important events today:

14:15 UTC – US: Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell will deliver a speech.

Commodity market sell-offs are supporting the US currency as metals and energy historically have a strong inverse correlation with the dollar. The geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East is shrinking as those involved in the conflict try to avoid escalation.

While last month there were many statements that a large-scale war could break out in the Middle East, there is now much talk about the need to de-escalate the conflict. On the commodity market, oil prices fell the most, and it is they that historically have the greatest impact on the value of this currency pair. Against this background, we can expect a decline in quotes of the British currency.

Recommendations: Sell 1.2305/1.2340 and TP 1.2208.