Events to watch out for today:

13:30 UTC – US: GDP change for the quarter.

The main event of the day will be the release of the Q4 2022 US GDP release. The day before the Fed released data on the money supply – the growth rate has been falling badly since last March and went into negative territory in December, and the last time it was seen more than half a century ago. Even during the massive mortgage crisis of 2008, which caused a massive recession in the U.S. economy, the growth rate was at 6%.

When the Fed did quantitative tightening in 2018-2019, the money supply growth rate fell to 3% and then GDP growth was just over 2%. Since there is always a strong correlation between money supply and GDP, and the rate of growth of the former is worse now than it was before the Covid-19 pandemic, we will see weak data today. Against this backdrop, the market will once again start to hear rumors that the Fed needs to stop raising rates and even start cutting them to avoid a severe recession in the economy. This is a negative signal for the dollar!

Recommendations: Buy 1.2375/1.2345 and TP 1.2455.