The main currency pair of the Forex market is approaching a yearly minimum and today the euro has a chance to compensate for some of the lost positions. In the second half of the day, the US inflation release for July will be published, which may come out slightly worse than the median forecasts, which will provide short-term support for the euro. The yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds, which has been historically correlated with inflation expectations, has been declining over the past four months.

If in the spring the yield made a yearly peak at 1.77%, now the figure is 1.36%. Meanwhile, we should not count on a strong strengthening of the euro, inasmuch as the ECB is aggressively printing money again and increasing the purchase of assets – over the past week the Central Bank’s balance has grown by €22.3 billion, updating its historical maximum again.

Trading recommendation: Buy 1.1690/1.1665 and take profit 1.1745.