EURUSD – US will build up government debt

09.10.2023

No important events are expected today.

At the end of last week traders were taking profits on “shorts”, which caused an upward correction in the single European currency, but the main trend is still downward and at current levels it is advisable to sell this currency pair. The yield on US 10-year government bonds ended last week at 4.79%, and I expect this indicator to continue rising up to 5%, which is favourable for the USD. The U.S. government debt has grown by two trillion dollars in three months and it is growing exponentially.

Next year the states will have to spend about $1.5 trillion to service their loans, while federal budget revenues are expected to be $5 trillion. Thus, 30% of revenues will be spent on interest on the current debt and this is a very large figure. Investors will demand higher yields on bonds and Janet Yellen’s department will have to make concessions.

Recommendations: Sell 1.0575/1.0620 and TP 1.0475.