Important events today:

17.00 UTC – US: ISM manufacturing index.

The US Ministry of Finance will again auction long-term government bonds today, which will reduce the liquidity surplus in the banking system. This is a positive signal for the dollar, so we can expect the continuation of the downtrend in this currency pair. On the last trading day of September, the United States presented statistics on personal consumption expenditures – the price index rose by 0.2 p.p. to 3.5%.

This indicator is considered to be Powell’s inflation indicator, and it is growing for the second month in a row, which may force the Fed to raise interest rates at the next meeting on 1 November. This factor will also play in favour of the dollar, as the ECB does not want to raise interest rates and thus leaves the euro without support.

Recommendations: Sell 1.0614/1.0645 and TP 1.0510.