EURUSD – Lower US inflation negative for the dollar

03.04.2023

Important events today:

14:00 UTC – US: ISM manufacturing index.

The United States pleasantly surprised investors with inflation statistics – the price index for personal consumption expenditure fell to 5% in February. The Fed monitors this indicator closely and considers it the best indicator of inflation. Initially the Fed expected the 5% mark to be reached in May but events have ended up moving much faster.

The Fed rate and inflation have now converged which allows the monetary watchdogs to pause in their monetary tightening cycle. Against this background investors will get rid of the dollar and buy risky assets where high yields can be obtained, which is favorable for the EURUSD quotes growth.

Recommendations: Buy 1.0787/1.0750 and TP 1.0870.