EURUSD – Interesting situation on the debt market

23.01.2023

Important events are not expected today.

It is advisable to use the decrease in quotes to the nearest support levels to open Buy positions. There is an interesting dynamics on the American debt market – the yield of 2-year government bonds fell below the US Federal Reserve rate. In the past, this situation has signaled an impending Fed rate cut.

In normal times, the yield on two-year government bonds is always higher than the Central Bank rate, and since January 6, the indicator has been below the Central Bank rate. For the dollar, this is a negative signal – the market is waiting not only for the end of the rate hike cycle, but also for rate cuts at the end of the year. It was thanks to the strong increase in Fed rates last year that the dollar showed a powerful trend, this year we will see a reverse process. After EURUSD can consolidate above the high of last week (1.0887), the uptrend in this currency pair will accelerate to the psychological level of 1.10.

Recommendations: Buy 1.0861/1.0830 and TP 1.0930.