EURUSD – Divergence with US government bond yields

10.07.2023

No important events are expected today.

After Friday’s statistics on the labor market in the U.S., the yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds rose and the dollar fell, while the exchange rate was expected to rise following the debt market. In my opinion, this divergence will be short-lived and the US dollar will make up for lost ground as the Federal Reserve has no choice but to continue its policy of raising interest rates.

Non-farm payrolls data fell slightly short of the consensus forecast, but the payrolls figure rose, indicating the persistence of inflationary risks in the economy. The U.S. Treasury Department will hold another auction of Treasury bonds today, which will also provide short-term support to the U.S. currency amid a shrinking surplus of dollar liquidity in the financial system.

Recommendations: Sell 1.0969/1.0995 and TP 1.0880.