European stocks decline amid talk of Fed easing stance

18.12.2023

European stocks fell following a weak Asian session after Federal Reserve officials abandoned forecasts for aggressive interest rate cuts next year.

The dollar was broadly unchanged and two-year Treasury yields fell two basis points, trimming gains made on Friday when New York Fed President John Williams led a chorus of officials saying it was too early to think about lowering borrowing costs.

The reaction could dampen the “rally of all things” after traders took previous Fed signals as a green light to raise rates for a rate cut next year, helping U.S. stocks to their biggest weekly gain in a month.

Central bankers from the U.S. to Europe and Canada have already begun their battle with traders. Atlanta FRB President Rafael Bostic, who will vote on monetary policy next year, told Reuters he expects two rate cuts in 2024, but not until the third quarter. At the same time, Chicago Fed chief Austan Goolsbee said on Sunday it would be an exaggeration to consider a rate cut until officials are convinced inflation is on track to fall to target levels. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem shares a similar sentiment.

In Europe, European Central Bank Governing Council Joachim Nagel said Friday it was too early to consider a rate cut, while his counterpart Madis Muller said markets were getting ahead of themselves by betting on policy easing in the first half of next year. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the bank had not discussed cutting rates at all.

Attention now turns to Japan, where the country’s central bank begins a two-day policy meeting on Monday. While speculation is growing that the Bank of Japan will soon end the world’s latest negative rate regime, economists see April as the most likely timeframe for a change, with about 15% expecting Ueda to lift negative rates in January, according to a Bloomberg survey of more than 50 economists.