Asian stocks fluctuate, snapping a week of losses, ahead of inflation data

22.12.2023

Chinese internet stocks fell on Friday on news of regulation, sending Asian shares lower in the last full trading week of the year, while the dollar wobbled ahead of U.S. inflation data expected to confirm bets on a rate cut in 2024.

MSCI, the broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, gave up ground and traded 0.3 percent lower after China released draft rules to curb spending by gamers. For the week, the index was down 0.6%.

Netease shares fell 29% at one point and Tencent shares fell more than 12%, sending the Hang Seng down 1.2%.

“It’s not necessarily the regulation itself – it’s the political risk, which is too high,” said Stephen Leung, executive director of institutional sales at brokerage UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong.

“People thought this type of risk was over and started looking at fundamentals again. That’s a big undermining of confidence.”

Banking stocks helped Japan’s Nikkei index climb 0.2 percent. The euro climbed above $1.10.

Outside Asia, markets have been in a celebratory mood for weeks as global inflation data showed a slowdown and the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would not raise interest rates again.

The yield on two-year U.S. Treasuries fell nearly 38 basis points in a week and a half and dropped 2 basis points overnight as U.S. core PCE inflation for the third quarter was revised downward to 2%.

The data prompted markets to brace for the last key number before Christmas, November’s personal consumption expenditure index, due out at 1330 GMT, with the consensus forecast expecting a 0.2% monthly increase.

“Analysts are confident it shouldn’t be above 0.2%,” National Australia Bank head of currency strategy Ray Attrill said in Sydney.

“Can we get 0.1%? It would probably take 0.1% to see a continuation of the moves we’ve seen.”

Overnight, U.S. stocks rebounded from a sudden drop late in Wednesday’s session, with the S&P 500 index up 1%.

The index is within 2% of its record high.

In Asia, S&P 500 futures were down 0.1% and Nike shares fell nearly 12% in after-hours trading after the company cut its sales forecast, blaming cautious consumers.

Oil hinted at a weekly gain amid concerns about the safety of shipping on the Red Sea, but prices fell overnight after Angola said it would withdraw from OPEC, raising questions about the producer group’s efforts to curb global supply. [O/R]

Brent crude futures rose 58 cents to $79.97 a barrel in Asian trading on Friday, up 4.5 percent for the week.

In currency trading, the dollar came under pressure due to markets’ expectations of a rate cut of more than 150 bps in 2024.

The euro was up 1% this week, despite the fact that a similar $1.1002 rate cut is expected in Europe next year. The single currency also rose about 1% against sterling, which fell sharply this week after an unexpected drop in inflation.

Sterling was poised for its biggest weekly fall against the euro and Australian dollar in three months. It was last bought at $1.2686 and traded at 86.71 pence per euro.

The dollar index fell 0.7 percent to 101.85 this week. For the year, it is down 2.4%. Among G10 currencies, the Swiss franc was the best performer for the year, rising nearly 8% against the dollar, while the yen’s 7.8% drop made it the worst performer.

NAB’s Attrill noted that the mirror movement of the two so-called safe haven currencies underscores the overwhelming influence of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy. It sticks to negative interest rates while the rest of the world raises them.

The dollar rose slightly to 142.43 yen on Friday.

Gold ends the week and year with a 12 percent rise to $2,049 an ounce.

Bitcoin is up 160 percent this year to $44,114.