EURUSD – Change in interest rate expectations

28.11.2023

Important events today:

14:00 UTC – EU: ECB President Christine Lagarde will give a speech.

15:00 UTC – US: Primary Home Sales.

The United States continues to release inflationary statistics – business activity in the service sector rose to a 4-month high, which prevents the US Federal Reserve from moving to lower interest rates. If at the beginning of the month futures market traders in Chicago believed that the U.S. monetary authorities will begin to reduce interest rates at a meeting on March 20, now expectations are mixed for June 12, which is favourable for the strengthening of the U.S. currency.

ECB head Christine Lagarde will speak at the opening of the US trading session, and she is likely to act in the general trend of global central banks – pointing to the need to maintain interest rates for a long period of time. Eurozone is balancing on the verge of recession, unlike the United States, which is negative for the euro.

Recommendations: Sell 1.0960/1.0990 and TP 1.0877.