Katie Wood remains confident in bitcoin

15.11.2023

Yesterday’s monstrous downward move in Treasury bond yields was a giant risk signal to the markets.

Among those enthusiasts was an ETF that has become synonymous with growing, disruptive technology during a pandemic: the Katie Wood Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK). This ETF jumped 5.2% on Tuesday and is now up more than 37% this year, recouping at least part of a dismal 2021 and 2022, when the fund became one of the Fed’s many casualties.

Many investors and tech CEOs, including the likes of Elon Musk, have said rates need to be stabilised or lowered if they are to rise further. Wood appears to be in the same camp, as she told me in a conversation yesterday.

“I don’t think the Fed will go any further,” she said. “If the market is convinced that that’s really the case, then it’s not necessarily the case that rates will come down at all. We believe they will come down. But we don’t think our strategy assumes the worst.”

Meanwhile, the dilettante investor isn’t changing her strategy. It remains surprisingly firm in its bets and investment philosophy. Even when ARKK stock plunged 67% last year, she was travelling, speaking to clients and the press as usual. And her message remained the same even when her returns weren’t: Disruptive innovation is a good investment over the long term.

Wood says she’s focused on a five-year investment horizon. ARKK’s five-year return is -2.5 per cent. The stock has nearly doubled since its inception about nine years ago, half as much as the Nasdaq Composite’s rise. Its much smaller Ark Autonomous Tech and Robotics ETF is up 162% over the same period. (Ark has a suite of eight proprietary ETFs).

However, Wood hasn’t stopped betting on fintech and cryptocurrencies. She’s championing a new suite of actively managed ETFs on digital assets introduced by Ark in partnership with 21Shares, a creator of cryptocurrency exchange-traded products sold overseas.

Wood told me that Ark first bought bitcoin at a price of $250, and her firm’s base bid is still $600,000 to $650,000. She said the odds are growing that the Securities and Exchange Commission will approve Ark and other firms’ applications to create bitcoin ETFs by the January deadline. That, she and other bitcoin bulls believe, could lead to even more growth.

This isn’t just a bet on a cryptocurrency renaissance and a new product for Wood’s company. It could also give the ARKK ETF the boost it needs to climb out of its current trough, which is 71% below its all-time high in 2021.