EURUSD – The market is preparing for tomorrow’s liquidity reduction

08.08.2023

No important events are expected today.

Friday’s release on the U.S. labor market failed to make significant adjustments to the course of trading on the currency market. On the one hand, the private sector employment figure has been below 200k for two months in a row, which allows the US Fed not to raise interest rates at the next meetings. On the other hand, the growth rate of average earnings is still high at 4.4%, which may not allow inflation to decline quickly, as desired by the Fed and the regulator will have to keep the discount rate at a high level for a long time.

Today, the U.S. Ministry of Finance will hold a series of auctions for short-term government bonds, which will not affect the market, as there will be no reduction in dollar liquidity, thanks to the inflow of capital from money market funds, but tomorrow the Ministry of Finance will place long-term bonds, which money market funds can not buy and here we can expect a reduction in liquidity in the financial system, which will have a favorable impact on the value of the U.S. currency.

Recommendations: flat 1.0925 -1.1025.