EURUSD – Two Reasons to Sell

17.07.2023

No important events are expected today.

The growth of quotations to the area of Friday’s maximum is reasonable to use for opening Sell positions for two reasons. First, fresh data from Michinaga Institute indicate the growth of inflation expectations of the population, which will not allow the Fed to make a pause at the next meeting on July 26. The regulator will be forced to raise the discount rate by 0.25 p.p. to 5.5%, which is favorable for the strengthening of the dollar.

Secondly, on the commodity market there is a decrease in quotations of metals and energy, which is also positive for the U.S. currency, as the dollar and raw materials historically have an inverse correlation.

Recommendations: Sell 1.1244/1.1270 and TP 1.1187.