Important events today:

19:00 UTC – US: U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

The United States presented inflation statistics the day before. The overall figure fell to 4% on a high base effect, while the core indicator, which does not include the highly volatile food and energy components, fell to 5.3%. Core inflation is still high and higher than the U.S. Federal Reserve rate, although the Taylor rule requires it to be 1% lower in order for monetary authorities to fully control inflation in the economy.

Yesterday’s inflation release does not allow the Federal Reserve to move to lower interest rates, but it does allow a pause in the current cycle to assess the prospects for further monetary policy. This is a moderately negative signal for the dollar. Additional pressure on the U.S. currency exchange rate will be exerted by the oil market, as the dollar and oil quotes historically have an inverse correlation. Investment funds are closing their shorts in oil, which contributes to the growth of quotations of black gold. This situation may last for another two days.

Recommendations: Buy 1.2585/1.2550 and TP 1.2650.