JPMorgan says Netflix stock could rise 17%

09.06.2023

According to JPMorgan, Netflix stock has a better chance of rising as it sees early successes in its low-cost advertising tier and pay-share rollout.

The bank raised its price target for the streaming company to $470 from $380 in a note Wednesday.

Netflix stock is up 37% this year, and JPMorgan thinks the growth could continue as the streaming company has made early progress on its low-cost advertising and paid sharing plan.

In a note Wednesday, the bank reiterated its “Overweight” rating on the stock and raised its target price to $470 from $380, implying a potential 17% rise from current levels.

JPMorgan raised Netflix’s earnings estimate to reflect the potential monetization of the roughly 100 million households who use Netflix but don’t pay for it by reporting passwords.

And while Netflix’s February announcement of its intention to fight paid password sharing sparked a strong reaction from consumers and ultimately led the company to delay its implementation, the rollout of a program that encourages users to pay to share passwords or encourages those who use someone else’s account to pay has caused less outrage from consumers. According to JPMorgan, this is a good sign.

Anmut predicts that by the end of 2025, 33 million password-sharing households will turn into paying customers, with about a 50/50 split between new subscribers and additional members when a household pays more money to share its password with someone else.

The successful introduction of paid sharing, combined with the steady progress of Netflix’s low-cost advertising plan, gives Anmut confidence in raising its revenue estimates by 4% and 6% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, and raising its operating profit estimates by 6% and 9%. These higher revenue and earnings estimates point to a higher estimate of Anmut’s stock price.

The rest of Anmut’s argument for Netflix hinges on improving profit margins through faster revenue growth and tighter cost discipline, improving the company’s free cash flow through lower content costs, and leading the company in an “increasingly streamlined streaming industry.”