GBPUSD – Two negative factors for the dollar

31.05.2023

Important events today:

2:00 p.m. UTC – US: Job openings and labor turnover rates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

US: Congressional vote on the national debt limit.

The course of trading today will be determined by two events from the United States and both news could have a negative impact on the value of the U.S. currency. Firstly, we will get a release on jobs in the labor market. The day before the US published the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report, which showed a decline in the number of vacancies in the labor market.

Against this backdrop, the U.S. Federal Reserve may take a pause in its interest rate hike cycle at its next meeting in 2 weeks. If Congress approves the new limit on government debt today, which is calculated until January 2025, we will see a further drop in the cost of insurance against default on Treasury bonds, which will put pressure on the dollar quotes. Default insurance was already falling the day before and this trend might intensify tonight. In this backdrop, the British currency may test last week’s high, located at 1.2468.

Recommendations: Buy 1.2368/1.23330 and TP 1.2468.