Important events today:

No important macroeconomic statistics are expected.

Passions about a possible default in the United States have not subsided in the market. Former U.S. President Donald Trump urges his Republican supporters not to compromise with the Democrats and declare default, but not all congressmen agree with this rhetoric. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen late last week announced a fresh estimate of the amount of cache the Treasury has at its disposal – $154.8 billion remains in Federal Reserve accounts and $88 billion can be used as an emergency measure.

That puts the Treasury’s cushion at about $243 billion, which could be enough until mid-June. The Congressional Budget Office believes that tax revenues and additional emergency measures can be used from mid-June through late July, so a default, if it happens, can be declared no earlier than August 1. Thus, Congress is signaling to investors that Yellen’s daily tantrums are not to be taken seriously just yet. Thus, in the next 4 weeks we will see a growing surplus of dollar liquidity on the foreign exchange market, which is negative for the USD rate.

Recommendations: Buy 1.0840/1.0809 and TP 1.0931.