EURUSD – the ECB does not want to, but is forced to raise rates

08.05.2023

Important events today:

13:30 UTC – US: labor market.

The day before, the ECB expectedly raised its discount rate by 0.25 p.p. to 3.75%. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that inflation in the euro zone is still high and the regulator is likely to have to continue its policy of raising interest rates. Lagarde also said that current interest rates have a negative impact on economic growth, and it was probably a hint for traders that they should not expect a strong rise in rates in the coming months.

The ECB cannot make a pause now as their U.S. Federal Reserve counterparts but they are afraid to aggressively raise rates, otherwise there will be another debt crisis in southern Europe. Further moderate growth of the interest rates in Europe will support the Euro, as the Fed is likely to lower the rates in the second half of the summer due to the intensification of the banking crisis.

Recommendations: Buy 1.1009/1.0975 and TP 1.1090.