Important events today:

14:00 UTC – US: ISM non-manufacturing index.

The sell-off in the US currency is gaining momentum, which is good for the British pound, which is trading at a nine-month high. Investors are getting rid of the dollar as they do not believe in further interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. The market believes that the Fed has peaked in its monetary tightening cycle and weak statistics from the United States on industrial activity clearly signal that rates will soon have to be cut to avoid a severe recession.

The ISM industrial index has fallen below 47 points and usually a recession starts after 3-6 months. The uptrend in commodities will also put additional pressure on the dollar – investors are increasing longs in metals and energy, which is negative for the US currency as assets are historically inversely correlated.

Recommendations: Buy 1.2455/1.2415 and TP 1.2540.