No important events are expected today.

Fresh statistics on U.S. personal consumption expenditures led to a change in the dynamics of the Fed Funds rate futures, which are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. While on New Year’s Eve investors were expecting the current cycle of interest rate hikes to end at the March 22 meeting at 5%, they are now waiting for the cycle to end at the June 16 meeting at 5.5%. Moreover, there is a growing probability that at the next meeting in March the interest rate will be raised at once by half a percent, rather than by a quarter, as the market initially expected.

The main index of personal consumption expenditures rose to 4.7% in January, while Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell argued that the figure will decline. The Fed is keeping a close eye on the dynamics of this index and considers it the best indicator of inflation. It turns out that those lauded 200 Fed economists who make forecast models based on historical data for the last 100 years were severely mistaken, and Powell only broadcasted this forecast live.

Recommendations: flat 1.0500 – 1.0600.