EURUSD – Market waits for U.S. inflation data

13.02.2023

No important events are expected today.

Tomorrow the United States will release the January inflation release and the market is beginning to gradually prepare for this event. The consensus forecast calls for a decline to 6.2%. Could the figure be lower? In my opinion, yes. First, energy prices are now 11% lower than they were a year ago, and fuel is an important inflationary component. Second, the money supply has been shrinking for the past six months, which is also negative for inflation.

Third, the wage growth rate has been declining for the past five months, which also signals a drop in inflation. Fourth, the U6 unemployment rate, which shows the ratio of the number of unemployed and actively looking for work to the total economically active population over the previous month increased by 0.1%, which is also negative for inflation. Against this background we may use the decrease of the quotes to the nearest support levels to open the Buy positions.

Recommendations: Buy 1.0655/1.0625 and TP 1.0760.