Important events today:

19:00 UTC – US: Fed meeting results.

Negative dynamics of the British debt market signals a decline of the pound – investors are selling government bonds on fears of a severe recession in the economy of the United Kingdom. It is advisable to use this decline to open Buy positions for two reasons. First, the U.S. Federal Reserve may raise the discount rate by 0.5 p.p. to 4.5% today and will announce that it will raise the rate by no more than 0.25 p.p. at its next meetings.

Yesterday’s inflation data signals that the Fed will already have to cut interest rates in a year, which is negative for the dollar. Secondly, we see a good rally in oil prices this week, which is also favorable for the GBP, as the assets are historically well correlated with each other. The oil market is adjusting to a reduction in black gold exports from Russia due to the price ceiling approved by the EU and G-7 countries.

Recommendations: Buy 1.2340/1.2300 and TP 1.2444.