In this column, I’m usually pretty optimistic about the outlook for Apple stock (ticker: AAPL). But when I assess the situation now, I see cause for concern – growth is slowing and could turn negative, and valuations are overstated. Apple stock looks vulnerable.

The stock is down about 15% this year. In most years this would have been unpleasant, but in a tough time for technology, Apple has outperformed its peers, and by a wide margin. Microsoft MSFT -0.19% (MSFT) fell 31%, Alphabet GOOGL -0.95% (GOOGL) fell 35%, Amazon.com AMZN -0.75% (AMZN) fell 43%, and Meta Platforms META +0.54% (META) fell 67%. Apple is now worth more than Microsoft and Meta combined.

But Apple’s growth rate is coming to naught. In fiscal year 2021, Apple grew revenue by 33%, its best performance since 2012, as demand for Macs and iPads rose sharply. Compare that to fiscal 2019, the last year before the pandemic, when revenue was down 2.2%. But like Zoom Video Communications (ZM), Peloton Interactive (PTON) and Amazon, Apple is seeing the effects of the pandemic wane. In 2023, it’s expected to decline.

That wouldn’t be much of a problem if the stock were cheaper. But Apple is trading at 24 times projected earnings for the next 12 months – right on par with Microsoft, which is growing faster than Apple, and much higher than the S&P 500’s ratio of about 18 times.