GBPUSD – Oil may cause dollar to strengthen

14.02.2022

Important events today:

15:30 UTC – USA: Crude oil inventories data from the Department of Energy.

Today, the background is somewhat mixed. On the one hand, it is quite possible to expect a rise in prices against the backdrop of positive dynamics of the debt market, where one can see an increase in the profitability of the spread of short-term US and UK government bonds. They are already almost equal, and the difference is only 0.01%. The last time this happened was in 2011.

But, on the other hand, a downward correction is expected in the oil market, which will have a negative impact on the quotes in the pair, since oil is inversely correlated with the dollar. In addition, Tehran’s easing of sanctions is now being actively considered, which will increase oil supplies.

The fall in oil prices is very beneficial for Joe Biden, against the backdrop of a weekly drop in his rating. And low oil prices will lead to lower inflation, which in turn will have a good effect on the ratings.

Recommendations: Flat in the range of 1.3505 -1.3590.