On the eve, the ECB published a new program of monetary policy, where all investors were worried about one question: will the target inflation rate be changed? The central bank left the inflation target at the previous level of 2%. This is a moderately positive signal for the euro, because if the ECB raised the indicator to 2.5% or 3%, then for a long time we would not see an increase in rates in the eurozone, especially, an increase in central bank rates, where the main trends in the Forex market are formed.

In the oil market, investors are starting to build up longs again, which is also favorable for the euro, inasmuch as there is a historically inverse correlation between the dollar and oil, insofar as the commodity is quoted in the US currency. Black gold stocks in the United States have been declining for eight consecutive weeks, and this trend will continue to gain momentum, inasmuch as the global oil market remains structurally short of supply, peak of which this year happens this month.

Trading recommendation: Buy 1.1820/1.1790 and take profit 1.1890.