Bears’ positional advantage

08.05.2021

Daily chart: in expectation of today’s “non-farms”, the market is in a fever. The conditional axis around which multidirectional movements take place is the middle Bollinger band (1.2027). After the publication of the American data, the price can jump to the upper Bollinger band (1.2143) and fall to the lower one (1.1915). These days the probability is approximately equal.

Н4: locally, the bearish scenario seems to be more promising, inasmuch as the price has already tested the area of the upper Bollinger band (1.2075). Therefore, if the macroeconomic background is not too negative for the US, the price will continue to decline in the direction of 1.1976.

Н1: consolidation range – 1.2049-1.2070 (Bollinger envelope size). The price will probably stay here until the news is released. Then we wait for the distribution towards the range breakout.

Conclusions: trading in the range of 1.2049-1.2070, then a decline to 1.1976.
Trading decisions: sales to 1.1976.