For two weeks in a row the euro has been demonstrating good growth in quotations, and by comparing the dynamics of changes in the balances of the US Federal Reserve and the ECB, we can come to the conclusion that we are expecting a continuation of the upward trend in the European currency. Over the past week the ECB has increased the balance sheet by €20.1 billion through the purchase of government bonds of the eurozone countries. The Federal Reserve increased the balance by $84.2 billion.

Therefore, the Fed prints money more actively than the ECB, which is negative for the dollar. The global financial system now has no problems with dollar liquidity – the indicator of “currency swaps” of the Fed with other world central banks is only $0.79 billion. At its peak in mid-spring 2020, the indicator was almost $150 billion. The absence of liquidity problems is also negative for the American currency.

Investment idea: Buy 1.1960/1.1930 and take profit 1.2015.