EURUSD – Political Tensions in the EU Impact the Euro

08.07.2024

No significant events expected today.

The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.0830 mark on Monday in the early hours of the Asian session. Political uncertainty in France following the second round of parliamentary elections on Sunday is putting pressure on the euro (EUR). Later on Monday, the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index for July will be released.

According to the Economist, exit polls showed that the left-wing New People’s Front (NPF) led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon is likely to win the most seats in the second round of parliamentary elections in France on Sunday. The NPF secured at least 174 seats. However, this is still not enough to gain the 289 seats needed to control the lower house of parliament. Meanwhile, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist “Ensemble” alliance won 146 seats, and Le Pen’s party was pushed to third place, gaining about 142 seats. The common currency attracted some sellers after opinion polls indicated that the latest round of parliamentary elections in France would result in a hung parliament.

On the other side, the growing chances of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) following the slow growth of US employment data may lead to a decline in the dollar and limit the pair’s fall. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the number of non-farm payrolls (NFP) in the US increased by 206,000 in June, following May’s growth of 218,000 (revised from 272,000). This figure was above the forecast of 190,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June from 4% in May. Average hourly earnings in June fell to 3.9% year-on-year from the previous value of 4.1%, matching market expectations. On Wednesday, traders will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, which is expected to decrease to 3.1% year-on-year in June from 3.3% in May.

Recommendations: Predominantly trade with buy orders at the price level of 1.0850. Consider sell orders at the price level of 1.0785.